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A human-caused climate change signal emerges from the noise

Friday, November 30, 2012

By comparing simulations from 20 different computer models to satellite observations, Lawrence Livermore climate scientists and colleagues from 16 other organizations have found that tropospheric and stratospheric temperature changes are clearly related to human activities.

The team looked at geographical patterns of atmospheric temperature change over the period of satellite observations. The team's goal of the study was to determine whether previous findings of a "discernible human influence" on tropospheric and stratospheric temperature were sensitive to current uncertainties in climate models and satellite data.

The troposphere is the lowest portion of earth's atmosphere. The stratosphere sits just above the troposphere, between 6 and 30 miles above earth's surface.

The satellite temperature data sets were produced by three different research groups, and rely on measurements of the microwave emissions of oxygen molecules. Each group made different choices in processing these raw measurements, and in accounting for such complex effects as drifts in satellite orbits and in instrument calibrations.

The new climate model simulations analyzed by the team will form the scientific backbone of the upcoming 5th assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is due out in 2014.

In both satellite observations and the computer model simulations of historical climate change, the lower stratosphere cools markedly over the past 33 years. This cooling is primarily a response to the human-caused depletion of stratospheric ozone. The observations and model simulations also show a common pattern of large-scale warming of the lower troposphere, with largest warming over the Arctic, and muted warming (or even cooling) over Antarctica. Tropospheric warming is mainly driven by human-caused increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases.

"It's very unlikely that purely natural causes can explain these distinctive patterns of temperature change," said Laboratory atmospheric scientist Benjamin Santer, who is lead author of the paper appearing in the Nov. 29 online edition of the journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "No known mode of natural climate variability can cause sustained, global-scale warming of the troposphere and cooling of the lower stratosphere."

The team analyzed results from climate model simulations with specified historical changes in human and natural external factors, and from simulations with projected 21st century changes in greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. They also looked at simulations with no changes in external influences on climate, which provide information on the year-to-year and decade-to-decade "noise" of internal climate variability, arising from such natural phenomena as the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

The team used a standard "climate fingerprint" method to search for the model signal pattern (in response to human influences, the sun and volcanoes) in the satellite observations. The method quantifies the strength of the signal in observations, relative to the strength of the signal in natural climate noise.

###

DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory: http://www.llnl.gov

Thanks to DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for this article.

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Source: http://www.labspaces.net/125608/A_human_caused_climate_change_signal_emerges_from_the_noise

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Deer get onto racetrack, announcer plays along

WASHINGTON, Pa. (AP) ? Spectators who came to watch horses at a western Pennsylvania racetrack got a surprise this week when three deer got onto the course first and beat the horses to racing.

According to KDKA-TV (http://cbsloc.al/VdzJuq ), a race was about to begin Wednesday night at the Meadows Racetrack in Washington County when the deer jumped onto the track.

Race announcer Roger Huston didn't miss a beat. He began calling the race as it unfolded, saying things like: "As they race down the track, Bambi has the lead. Here comes Rudolph from the outside."

The deer ran fast but kept changing directions. At one point, they appeared headed to the paddock, where the horses were being held.

Several minutes into the show, the deer decided to leave the track to the horses.

Huston says Bambi won the race.

___

Information from: KDKA-TV, http://www.kdka.com

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/aa9398e6757a46fa93ed5dea7bd3729e/Article_2012-12-01-Deer%20on%20Racetrack/id-740bdfd8af3f46f09279ab45f6fa87e5

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How to Use Real Estate Exchanges

To Defer or Not to Defer ? That Could Be the Question?.

by Diana Hill, Online Trading Academy

just finished teaching the Professional Real Estate Investor Class and one of my students had a great interest in learning about 1031 exchanges. I teach the ins and outs of a delayed exchange in the class, but thought I would open up the topic to all my readers and give you something to think about.

What is a 1031 exchange? A 1031 exchange can provide real estate investors with one of the best tax strategies for preserving the value of an investment portfolio and expanding it.? By using an exchange, the investor is able to defer the recognition of capital gains taxes that would otherwise be incurred on the sale of an investment property.? Now the investor can take the entire amount of the equity they have accumulated and purchase substantially more replacement property.

Follow up:

There are five types of exchanges: Delayed, Simultaneous, Build-to-Suit, Reverse, and Personal Property. In this article I?ll outline the two most common, Delayed and Simultaneous.

Delayed ? also known as Straightforward Exchange:

This is the most common type of exchange.? Certain IRS requirement must be met to structure a delayed exchange. This arrangement gives the investor the advantage of the full exchange period.

The process is 4 basic steps:

1) Open the exchange ? an investor must open an exchange account with a QI (Qualified Intermediary).

2) Close the sale of the relinquished property ? the QI will, through an executed assignment, assume the purchase contract and instruct the closing agent to deed the relinquished property directly from the investor to the new buyer.? The proceeds from the sale are then sent directly to the QI.? This protects the investor from the prohibited receipt of the funds.

3) Identification of replacement property ? there is a 45 day deadline to identify the replacement property(ies).? The investor must follow one of two rules in identifying the property.? I) identify a maximum of three replacement properties without regard to their FMV (fair market value) ? this is known as ?The Three Property Rule?. II) The investor can identify more than three properties as long as the aggregate FMV doesn?t exceed ?200% of the relinquished property value.

4) Acquire identified replacement property ? this is known as the exchange period.? Within 180 days the investor must close escrow on the identified replacement property(ies).? The funds are then transferred from the QI directly to the closing agent.

Simultaneous Exchange:

A simultaneous exchange occurs when the relinquished property and the replacement property are transferred concurrently. Some investors erroneously believe that two transactions closing on the same day satisfies the exchange requirements.? Although a QI doesn?t hold the funds in this kind of exchange, its function is critical to creating a trade that is fully compliant with IRS code 1031.? The QI provides the essential paper trail for validation of the flow and structure of the transaction.? This will ensure the ?safe harbor? treatment of the deferral of capital gains.

I hope you can see the huge tax advantage to a 1031 exchange. It can also be daunting.? Purchasing either more properties or a bigger property can add to management issues and may not be the desire of the investor. A TIC (Tenant in Common), can provide the investor the opportunity to go bigger and use those deferred taxes without more management responsibility.? Part of my personal strategy is to exchange my rentals into TIC?s.

A TIC is a vehicle where an investor is permitted to pool their assets with other investors in the acquisition of like-kind replacement property. TIC?s are organized by syndicators to be essentially passive investment and repositories for proceeds of 1031 exchanges.

An investor can get into a TIC with a minimum equity requirement as low as $100,000, which will allow the investor to invest in a high quality, institutional grade property.? A TIC also allows the investor to be in a diversity of properties and locations without the worries of management.

Taxes are part of our reality, they shouldn?t be why we made decisions but they should always be part of the decision making process.

I believe that they will be changes in our tax laws soon; there has to be. I don?t know what they will be so if you can take advantage of these rules it?s better to do it sooner because later may not be an option.

Great Fortune....

Read More by This Author

About the Author

Born in California, Diana Hill graduated from California State University Long Beach with a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration ? Accountancy. Diana learned about real estate investing at 17 while working in a real estate office on the weekends in high school. In college she started investing in real estate and even though she worked as a tax professional after college she always knew that real estate investing was in her blood. Diana has remained in California with her family where she has built a fortune in real estate investments, developed successful businesses and been an active member of her community.

Her preferred approach to real estate is buy and hold with large positive cash flows and immediate equity. Diana has used many different buying, controlling, and exit strategies in her years of investing. She also has experience with fixing and reselling properties for consistent profits. Diana and her husband Randy, a California Real Estate Broker, have created their substantial net worth and income stream by purchasing, holding and selling properties in CA and out of state.

Diana has been a sought after expert and speaker on the subject of Probate Real Estate Investing all over the country since 1980. She has been asked to speak to professional organizations and at the secondary and university levels. Diana authors and is the editor of several newsletters, blogs, and has developed accredited course material for the CA Department of Real Estate.

Diana is an active member of the BBB and NAWBO. Diana has been used as a source for several articles in the Orange County Register, has been quoted in Fortune Magazine, and contributed to many other publications. She has acted as President of many community organizations and chairperson on various committees, foundations and boards. Diana has been presented commendations and awards from various organizations. Her goal is to help others achieve Great Fortune in Real Estate.

Source: http://econintersect.com/b2evolution/blog3.php/2012/11/30/to-defer-or-not-to-defer-that-could-be-the-question

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Major research grant for Warwick-Monash ? News ? The Boar

One of the first major research grants from the alliance between the University of Warwick and Monash University in Australia has been awarded to a joint project researching optical wireless?technology.

The Australian Research Council awarded the collaboration between Warwick?s Professor Roger Green and Monash?s Professor Jean Armstrong a Discovery Grant of $410,000?(?267,000).

The aim of the project is to develop new short-range communications systems with virtually unlimited bandwidth, which combine the convenience of wireless with the speed of optical?communications.

Optical wireless technology relies on the transmission of data through light. Now a mainstream form of radio communications, the techniques find applications in many areas, including secure wi-fi using room lighting and satellite-to-satellite links. It can also be used underwater where radio communications?cannot.

It is already used every day ? more simple forms of it are found in remote controls, while more complicated forms can transmit larger amounts of information around rooms and?vehicles.

Professor Green told the Boar that optical wireless technology offers strong commercial potential: ?It is very cheap as it uses devices and optics already developed for the mass market optical fibre links, which convey the internet around the world and to everyone?s local phone?exchanges.?

However, optical wireless communications are free space, meaning they do not need fibre, and this saves cost and installation?charges.

While licensing of the radio frequency spectrum is another common cost of communications, using conventional wireless communications, such as mobile phones, optical wireless frequencies and wavelengths are?free.

The grant will be based at Monash, where it will fund a postdoctoral researcher working for Professors Green and Armstrong, and for Professor Green to travel to Monash as a?co-investigator.

The two professors have worked together for some time, and initially benefited from early?investment.

Benefits of the grant will also be seen at Warwick. Professor Armstrong will travel here to work on the project, enabling the professors to plan joint research?publications.

As Professor Green is International Exchange Coordinator for the School of Engineering, two of Warwick?s undergraduates are currently enjoying the Australian climate for an academic?year.

Professor Green added: ?The grant cements my collaboration with Professor Armstrong on a research level and also on an undergraduate and teaching level quite?visibly.?

Source: http://theboar.org/news/2012/nov/30/major-research-grant-warwick-monash/

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PM Cameron opposes press law after hacking scandal

LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister David Cameron said on Thursday that he had serious concerns about legislation to regulate the media, risking a split in his coalition after a damning inquiry triggered by a phone-hacking scandal proposed a press watchdog backed in law.

Opposing a legal foundation to an independent press regulator will delight the British media ahead of the 2015 election but will deepen a divide in Cameron's coalition government and within his own party.

"We should be wary of any legislation that has the potential to infringe free speech and the free press," Cameron told parliament, watched from the chamber's gallery by victims of tabloid newspaper phone-hacking who have campaigned for tougher rules governing Britain's recalcitrant media.

"I'm not convinced at this stage that statute is necessary to achieve Lord Justice Leveson's objectives," Cameron said, referring to the judge who has spent a year investigating the press. "I have some serious concerns and misgivings on this recommendation."

The leader of the opposition Labour Party, Ed Miliband, said he supported a proposal by Leveson to back a new independent press watchdog with legislation.

Leveson said he had no intention of ending three centuries of press freedom but condemned sometimes "outrageous" behavior by the press that had "wreaked havoc with the lives of innocent people".

"The ball moves back into the politicians' court: they must now decide who guards the guardians," Leveson told a news conference in Westminster, opposite the House of Commons.

Leveson's inquiry was ordered by Cameron after public outrage at revelations that reporters at one of Rupert Murdoch's tabloids hacked the phone messages of a 13-year-old murder victim, Milly Dowler.

Leveson said there should be a new independent self-regulatory body, which would be recognized in law, something the press and many within Cameron's own party, including senior ministers, have adamantly opposed as an erosion of press freedom.

Nick Clegg, the leader of the junior Liberal Democrat partners in the coalition government, will deliver his own statement to parliament after Cameron, implying that the two disagree on the way forward.

'TOO CLOSE'

Leveson, whose inquiry laid bare phone-hacking, claims of police bribes and the cozy relationship between top editors and the political elite, said the relationship between politicians and the press was too close.

Leveson warned that the close ties formed between the government and Rupert Murdoch's News Corp over the aborted takeover of BSkyB was concerning and had the potential to jeopardize the $12 billion bid.

But he offered little in the way of direct criticism of individuals, ammunition for those who hoped it would condemn Cameron for his links to Murdoch's media empire

He said there was no credible evidence of bias on the part of senior minister and Cameron ally Jeremy Hunt in his handling of the BSkyB takeover, but said the close ties allowed a perception of favoritism.

Inquiry hearings embarrassed Cameron by exposing his close ties to executives at Murdoch's British newspaper empire, notably former top lieutenant Rebekah Brooks, who is facing criminal action over phone-hacking and other alleged illegal actions.

Cameron, three former prime ministers, senior ministers, press barons including the 81-year-old Murdoch, plus an array of celebrities such as Hollywood actor Hugh Grant were among the 164 witnesses to appear before the inquiry.

(Additional reporting by Tim Castle, Writing by Guy Faulconbridge,; Editing by Giles Elgood)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/british-inquiry-calls-law-underpin-press-body-134857637--finance.html

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Study: Like a tree, growth rings show lobster age

FILE - In this July 2007 file photo a young lobster is seen on Friendship Long Island, Maine. Scientists have now figured out where the growth rings are to determine the age of a lobster. Researchers found that growth rings found in the eyestalk - a stalk with an eyeball on the end connected to the body of lobsters, crabs and shrimp. In lobsters and crabs, the rings are also found in teeth-like structures in their stomachs used to grind up food. (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty, File)

PORTLAND, Maine (AP) ? For the first time, scientists have figured out how to determine the age of a lobster ? by counting its rings, like a tree.

Nobody knows how old lobsters can live to be; some people estimate they live to more than 100.

But knowing ? rather than simply guessing ? their age and that of other shellfish could help scientists better understand the population and assist regulators of the lucrative industry, said Raouf Kilada, a research associate at the University of New Brunswick who was the lead author of a scientific paper documenting the process.

Before now, scientists deduced a lobster's age judging by size and other variables. But it's now known that lobsters and other crustaceans, such as crabs and shrimp, grow one ring per year in hidden-away internal spots, Kilada said.

"Having the age information for any commercial species will definitely improve the stock assessment and ensure sustainability," he said after presenting his findings Thursday at a scientific conference in Portland.

Scientists already could tell a fish's age by counting the growth rings found in a bony part of its inner ear, a shark's age from the rings in its vertebrae and a scallop or clam's age from the rings of its shell.

But crustaceans posed a problem because of the apparent absence of any permanent growth structures. It was thought that when lobsters and other crustaceans molt, they shed all calcified body parts that might record annual growth bands.

For their research, Kilada and five other Canadian researchers took a closer look at lobsters, snow crabs, northern shrimp and sculptured shrimp.

They found that growth rings, in fact, could be found in the eyestalk ? a stalk connected to the body with an eyeball on the end ? of lobsters, crabs and shrimp. In lobsters and crabs, the rings were also found in the so-called "gastric mills," parts of the stomach with three teeth-like structures used to grind up food.

To find the growth bands, the scientists dissected the eyestalks and the gastric mills, cut out sections and viewed them under microscopes.

Lobsters don't lose reproductive capabilities or organ functions or exhibit signs of aging as they get older, but nobody knows for sure how old they can live to be.

"We've thought lobsters could live to 100 years old, and this new aging technique will be a way to document that," said Bob Bayer, executive director of the University of Maine's Lobster Institute.

The paper was published in this month's Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, a well-regarded peer-reviewed scientific journal based in Ottawa, Ontario, that has been published since 1901. Kilada's was one of more than 50 scientific presentations at the conference, attended by more than 100 lobster scientists from the U.S., Canada and Europe.

Bayer agreed that this is the first time scientists have a direct method to place an age on crustaceans.

"Right now we're just guessing at their age," he said.

Kilada said he saw lobster specimens that were 16 or 17 years old during his research. He estimates that there are lobsters 60 or 70 years old living in the wild.

Susan Waddy, a lobster researcher with Canada's Department of Fisheries and Oceans, said she has kept lobsters in her laboratory that are more than 30 years old. She suspects they live to be 40 or 50.

"We know they don't live forever," she said.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/386c25518f464186bf7a2ac026580ce7/Article_2012-11-30-Lobster%20Aging/id-7c05a261b5f3442387f59b50f26f058e

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Boehner Says He & White House In Stalemate - Yeshiva World News

Boehner Says He & White House In Stalemate Over Fiscal Cliff

(Friday, November 30th, 2012)

U.S. House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner on Friday said Republicans and President Barack Obama are locked in a stalemate, a month before a $600 billion ?fiscal cliff? of tax hikes and spending cuts is set to kick in.

?There is a stalemate; let?s not kid ourselves,? said Boehner, speaking to reporters a day after Obama made a budget offer that Republicans called unacceptable.

Obama and Republicans are holding firm in their respective positions, with the biggest sticking point being whether to extend low tax rates on household income above $250,000. Boehner said Republicans still oppose raising tax rates on any income group.

(Reuters)

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Source: http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/?p=147748

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